How did Turkey's Erdogan become one of the most powerful people in the world – and a Trump ally?

As President Donald Trump seeks to reshape Washington's foreign policy in the Middle East, the US leader has increasingly looked to an early ally who has emerged as one of the most influential voices in the region - and beyond.

In the past week alone, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proven himself to be an important player on several geopolitical fronts.

Days after overseeing the end of a four-decade insurgency waged by the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Erdogan was praised by Trump for his persuasion to lift sanctions on Syria and even for meeting with the country's rebel-turned-interim leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, during a high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia, the first foreign trip of Trump's second presidency.

Turkey, officially known as Türkiye, continued to host high-stakes nuclear talks between Europe and Iran, along with elusive wartime discussions between Russia and Ukraine.

The commitments came as Trump sought to lead diplomatic efforts on both issues and now finds himself aligning himself with the only leader who appears capable of helping advance his vision.

“Mr. Trump calls him a friend,” recalls Cagri Erhan, Erdogan’s top adviser and a member of the Turkish presidency’s security and foreign policy council.

"And he wants it to be a key player, both regionally and globally, to cooperate with the United States under the Trump administration," Erhan tells Newsweek, the Telegraph reports.

"And I think both countries can mutually benefit in this new era," Erhan adds.

"Erdogan's recipe" for success

Erhan attributes Erdogan's success to four factors that he argues constitute a distinct mix of attributes that have contributed to his position as Turkey's most influential leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded the modern republic in 1923 following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the Turkish War of Independence.

"First, he is experienced, for more than 23 years now, he has led one of the leading NATO countries and one of the leading economies among the 20 nations of the world," Erhan said on the sidelines of the panel "Beyond the Alliance: Redefining US-Turkey Relations in a Changing World" organized in New York by the Turkish presidency's Communications Directorate.

Coming from "humble beginnings" in Istanbul, Erdogan began his political career by rising through the ranks of several Islamist parties that clashed with his country's secular constitution before founding the Justice and Development Party (AKP) that eventually led him to the position of prime minister in 2003.

He has led the country ever since, securing the presidency in 2014, after which he strengthened the once ceremonial position and completely dismantled the role of prime minister.

Having dealt with many American presidents and various leaders from other nations, Erdogan “is aware of every dynamic on a regional and global level,” Erhan believes. “He has been part of the trends and processes that we have been facing for a quarter of a century now.”

Erhan also argued that Erdogan was extremely "trustworthy" and "has always kept his promises and commitments to allies and friendly countries."

Even among "some of the hostile countries," Erhan said, "his credibility is very well respected."

The Turkish president's influence has given him "a voice at regional levels," according to Erhan, putting him in an excellent position to advance his goals in some of the world's most difficult conflicts.

"When it comes to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, he doesn't want two of Turkey's neighbors to fight each other and [wants them] to sit at a peace table."

As the Newsweek article points out, despite offers from many other nations, Turkey has so far proven to be the only country to successfully unite the two sides in Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II.

Before the latest talks held on Friday in Istanbul, Erdogan had managed to oversee negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in the spring of 2022, and that summer brokered an agreement to allow the export of grain through the Black Sea.

At that time, Erdogan had already made seismic moves in several other regions.

These include bolstering Libya's internationally recognized government in Tripoli against its Benghazi-based rival, supporting Azerbaijan's operations to retake the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from separatists linked to Armenia, and maintaining aid to Syrian rebel groups that would later topple former President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran and Russia, in December.

"When it comes to regional cooperation in the Caucasus, he wants all three of these Caucasus countries to contribute to creating a more stable and prosperous Caucasus region," Erhan points out. "When it comes to the Middle East, he has his say. He wants the region to be cleansed of terrorist organizations, etc."

Finally, Erhan said that, “he has a future perspective, a future assessment for the global level,” an assessment in which the permanent seats of the United Nations Security Council are expanded beyond the current five, and reforms are pursued to achieve a “fairer” international order that also narrows the gap between rich and poor around the world.

“That’s why these four characteristics make Erdogan a unique leader, not on a regional scale, but on a global scale,” Erhan says. “And I think Mr. Trump knows that.”

'I like him, and he likes me'

Trump's praise for Erdogan during his Middle East tour was just the latest example of the American leader expressing admiration for his Turkish counterpart.

Shortly after Assad fell from power in a lightning assault by Syrian rebels, Trump quickly gave Erdogan more credit than the Turkish leader claimed for himself, calling him "very smart and very strong."

“I think Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria, actually,” Trump told reporters during a press conference on December 16, a little over a month before his inauguration. “I don’t think you’ve heard this from anyone else, but I’ve been pretty good at predicting.”

Trump's approval was even more evident during a press conference on April 7 alongside the head of another top US ally in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has increasingly clashed with Erdogan over the war in Gaza and the civil war in Syria.

While the Israeli prime minister warned of growing Turkish influence in Syria under the new Sharaa government amid ongoing Israeli military operations in the neighboring country, Trump had only "warm words" for Erdogan.

"I have a great relationship with a man named Erdogan. Have you heard of him? And I happen to like him, and he likes me," Trump said, before going on to offer to mediate "the clash between Netanyahu and Erdogan."

"Any problem you have with Turkey, I think I can solve it, I mean as long as you're reasonable," Trump told Netanyahu. "You have to be reasonable. We have to be reasonable."

So far, the Israeli-Turkish dispute appears to have remained tense, despite recent talks held by both sides in Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, signs of a rift between Trump and Netanyahu have become more apparent in recent weeks.

Trump has pursued direct talks with the Palestinian movement Hamas to secure the release of a US-Israeli hostage, reached a ceasefire agreement with the Yemeni movement Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, that did not include the group's attacks on Israel, and continued nuclear talks with Iran.

In another potential blow to Trump and Netanyahu's once-close rapport, Axios reported on Monday that Vice President J.D. Vance had canceled an upcoming trip to Israel amid concerns that the visit would signal support for Israel's decision to renew operations in Gaza despite U.S. efforts to promote a ceasefire, citing an unidentified U.S. official.

Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, spoke about why he believed Turkey was gaining ground in the Trump administration's calculations.

"In the Middle East, compared to Israel, Turkey actually has more to add to U.S. foreign policy goals, served by its ability and intent to contribute to state-building, regional stabilization, and economic development," Ulgen told Newsweek.

“This is particularly clear in Syria,” he added, “where since the fall of the Assad government, Ankara’s involvement has been critical in steering the new administration in Damascus towards a more inclusive style of governance that would be instrumental in ensuring the country’s long-term normalization.”

However, the relationship between Erdogan and Trump has not been without periods of tension.

The first Trump administration put strong pressure on Ankara to release imprisoned pastor Andrew Brunson after his detention in 2016 linked to a failed coup attempt that year in Turkey.

He was finally released in 2018 in a move hailed today by Trump as a sign of positive engagement with Erdogan, with whom the US leader now says he "never had a problem."

Another episode occurred in 2020, when the US imposed sanctions against Turkey in accordance with the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system.

The purchase was linked to previous disputes over Turkey's efforts to buy the US Patriot system, but only intensified the friction, leading to Ankara's exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program.

But this issue appears to be on the path to resolution under the second Trump administration.

Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Erdogan said there had been a "softening of CAATSA."

"With my friend Trump taking office, we have achieved more open, constructive and honest communication on these issues," he said.

Ulgen agreed that Trump's election was perhaps a victory for US-Turkey ties, which had continued to deteriorate under former US President Joe Biden, who called the Turkish leader an "autocrat" and went so far as to openly seek US support for Erdogan's opposition in the 2020 campaign.

“The change in administration has paved the way for closer Turkey-US cooperation in regional diplomacy,” Ulgen said. “With the Trump Administration, Turkey’s democratic record ceased to be a limiting factor for deeper bilateral cooperation. Washington correctly assessed that Ankara’s support would be critical to addressing some of the difficult regional challenges, including Ukraine and Syria.”

For “A Turkey Great Again”

For more than six centuries, Turkish influence prevailed in much of the Middle East under the rule of the Ottoman Empire.

The multiethnic state, headquartered in the former Byzantine capital of Constantinople – later renamed Istanbul by Ataturk – ended the last traces of the Romans to emerge as a global power until a long decline that saw its control and influence fade over possessions in the Balkans and North Africa, finally losing its grip on the Arab world.

But today, and for much of the 21st century, his successor state is once again on the rise, with a number of Erdogan's supporters and critics referring to his policies as a form of "neo-Ottomanism."

Although Erdogan and his inner circle have rejected the term, the Turkish leader has often referred to the Turkish people as "descendants of the Ottomans" when speaking to AKP supporters.

James Jeffrey, former US ambassador to Turkey and previously Trump's special presidential envoy for the US-led coalition against the Islamic State (ISIS) militant group, identified three reasons why he felt responsible for Turkey's "dramatic increase in its geostrategic influence over the past 25 years, roughly the same period as Erdogan's rule."

“Starting in 2000, the ‘unipolar’ period of American dominance (supported by the EU) faded, with Europe and America (mainly Europe) declining in terms of global GDP [gross domestic product], anti-establishment states rising: Russia, China, Iran (until the last 18 months),” Jeffrey told Newsweek. “All of this created opportunities, and increased the importance, of an aggressively active middle state in a geographically critical location, namely Turkey.”

Meanwhile, Jeffrey added that “Turkey in the same period grew both relative to most other countries and in real terms: stability (one party in power); economic strength (extraordinary exports, services and industrial growth, entry into the G-20); military – both in terms of the strength of the armed forces and the willingness to use them directly or indirectly in conflicts (Bayraktar drones, Ukraine closing the Straits to Russia, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, the Caucasus).”

He explained that “Erdogan worked for a seat at every table while trying to resolve long-term conflicts” in these regions, while at the same time demonstrating “skillful management of potential weak points” in the country, including criticism of his consolidation of power, economic problems and the PKK insurgency.

This comes “despite some obvious downsides,” which Jeffrey noted, including continued questions of Erdogan’s commitment to democracy among members of Congress and other influential voices in Washington, as well as opposition from some influential communities in the US, including Armenian, Greek and Israeli interest groups.

Protecting its Western alliances from Ankara while maintaining ties with Moscow could also be potentially tricky, Jeffrey pointed out.

However, Jeffrey saw a "common ground" between the two men, who he said share a "non-moralistic transactional approach to issues, similar positions on Iran and Russia, all in contrast to America's European partners."

“The Turkish Century”

Washington's deterioration in ties with its European NATO allies since Trump returned to power in January comes amid a broader battle for global leadership, a contest that is most often portrayed as primarily between the US and China, and more generally as between East and West.

With Turkey in the middle, both figuratively and literally, as Erdogan emphasized in an interview with Newsweek last July, the Turkish leader has invested in its role in NATO and sought closer engagement with Europe, while simultaneously building ties with China- and Russia-led blocs, the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, respectively, according to the Telegraph.

In October 2022, on the 99th anniversary of his republic, Erdogan further outlined his ambitions by announcing the “dawn of the Turkish Century.”

Richard Outzen, a retired U.S. Army colonel who served as a civilian and military advisor in the U.S. State Department and later in the office of special representative for Syria under the first Trump administration, called Turkey's geopolitical rise and power projection "one of the major strategic developments of the 21st century."

"The country's decades-long maturing economic liberalization and internationalization, military reforms, growing sophistication in the defense industry and intelligence capabilities, and a more open foreign policy have all been factors," Outzen told Newsweek.

“The continuity offered by uninterrupted rule by Erdogan’s AKP party, whatever its implications for domestic politics, certainly gives it an edge in power politics and international affairs,” he added. “The changing international system has favored middle powers in many ways, and Ankara has played well in this regard.”

Changes in the US have also played a prominent role, as Trump exploits "national fatigue" due to prolonged involvement in foreign conflicts and seeks assistance from partners in his peace efforts.

At the same time, the unpredictability of a rapidly evolving global order, as well as Trump’s unconventional approach to the presidency, also bring risks, not the least of which, Outzen noted, include “the need for ongoing and patient alliance management – ​​and it is fair to question whether the bureaucracies on both sides have the memory to do the job.”

So far, however, the two men appear to be finding enough common ground in their respective agendas to support a prolonged engagement.

“The two leaders may be different in personal style, but complementary in their approach to foreign policy,” Outzen says. “Both respect strength, value trade and large-scale political or business deals, and trust personalized policy approaches over institutionalized ones.”

And now Trump seems to have a place for Erdogan in his proclaimed “Golden Age of America.”

“The US has neither the appetite nor, perhaps, the resources to unilaterally manage the world – it needs capable partners with a general, if not complete, alignment in different regions of the world,” Outzen believes.

“The list of regional conflicts and challenges where US and Turkish interests overlap is long, and Washington needs partners with serious military, economic and diplomatic capabilities,” he added. “The benefits are therefore clear.” /Telegraph/