Meteorologists with the forecast for the summer of 2025 - drought and "hellish" heat await us

According to the latest seasonal forecasts published on the specialized meteorological portal Severe Weather Europe, Europe is entering the summer of 2025 with marked changes in atmospheric patterns that indicate the possibility of a drier, warmer and potentially extreme summer, especially in the second half of the season.

Although long-term forecasts are never entirely reliable, the consensus of several global models paints a relatively clear picture: above-average temperatures, a lack of precipitation, and an increased risk of heat waves are expected.

Spring Outlook: Unusually dry and warm in the northwest, more precipitation in the southwest

The meteorological spring (March-May) of 2025 was characterized by a pronounced atmospheric pressure that formed a dominant high pressure over northwestern Europe. Cyclones mainly avoided the central part of the continent, staying mainly over the southwestern and northeastern parts of Europe. The result was clear – most of the continent recorded temperatures above the seasonal average. More precipitation was recorded in the southwestern and partly in southern Europe, while the northern and northwestern parts were dry, under the direct influence of the high pressure. These conditions have already caused concern about the continuation of the dry trend during the summer months.

End of Spring: Unstable Transition to Summer

In the last week of May, according to the forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), a pronounced area of ​​low pressure is expected to penetrate most of Europe. This change could bring unsettled weather, colder temperatures and heavier rainfall, especially in the central and northern parts of the continent. This weather pattern is very different from the calmer spring, indicating a dynamic transition towards meteorological summer.

June 2025: Gentle entry into a hot summer

The start of summer could be relatively stable, with milder temperatures in central and northeastern parts of Europe. High pressure over the North Atlantic and Southern Europe, and low pressure over the northeast of the continent, could create a northwesterly flow that brings cooler and more stable conditions to the central part.

However, western and southern Europe can expect above-average temperatures as early as June, while a dry spell is forecast for much of western, southern and central Europe. More rainfall is possible in the north – particularly in the UK, Scandinavia and parts of Poland.

July and August: Anticyclone dominance, drought and heat waves

Long-range forecasts for July and August – the key summer months – show a clear trend of rising temperatures and falling precipitation across the continent. ECMWF, one of the world’s most reliable weather models, predicts:

Extremely above average temperatures across central, western and southern Europe;

Long periods of drought under the influence of sustained high pressure;

Increased possibility of heat waves, which may be stronger and more frequent compared to previous seasons.

The high pressure, known as a “blocking anticyclone,” will act as a shield that pushes cyclones northward, leaving much of the continent under dry, warm air. These conditions favor the development of drought, reduce river flows, and pose a risk to agriculture and the health of the population.

Additional confirmation: UKMO and CANSIPS support similar predictions

Forecasts from the British UKMO and Canadian CANSIPS models further confirm the dominant summer trends.

The UKMO suggests the possibility of frequent inflows of cooler air from the northwest, but still maintains the appearance of an exceptionally warm summer, especially in the central and northern part of the continent. This model also predicts temporary periods of rain in northern and central Europe, but with an overall dry character in the south and southeast.

The CANSIPS model predicts a pronounced high pressure over northern and central Europe, confirming the dominance of dry and warm air. Although a temporary lower pressure may develop in the southern parts, bringing local precipitation, the main weather will remain stable and dry. /Telegraph/